by The good news is that it has been a great year for cinema.
The bad news is that, now, the battle for best picture will be bloodier than ever.
With such a wide field of acclaimed contenders, many worthy films will suffer when the Oscar nominations are announced on January 23. Even today’s self-imposed task of narrowing the list down to the 10 most likely nominees proved a harrowing task; Instead, I’ve covered myself with an unlucky 13.
Ahead of Sunday’s Golden Globes, and next week’s Actors and Producers Guild nominations, here are the current contenders with the most viable shot at a best picture nomination, ranked in descending order of certainty.
Christopher Nolan’s hit biopic has the feel of an old-fashioned street sweeper: It’s an intellectual film and a populist hit — exactly the kind of movie that Oscar voters and the general public should agree on. Still, this race is not assured. Recent best picture winners tend to tug at the heart more than the head, and there are plenty of contenders who can make a more effective case for that organ. And though Nolan has been nominated five times before, he’s never been able to convince voters to give him the Oscar: Even when he directed “Dunkirk” (2017), the kind of technically great World War II movie that should have been a The ultimate choice for the academy, voters flocked to the warm and tender Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”) instead of the cool and professorial Nolan.
Could Alexander Payne’s Christmas movie be this year’s “CODA,” a heartwarming little film that beats the towering arthouse film it faces? Set in the 1970s and filmed like a movie from that era (even the pre-credits studio logos are appealingly vintage), this boarding school comedy-drama couldn’t be more apt for older members of the academy, who will be eager to give “The Remnants” their vote of “they don’t make them like that anymore.” Paul Giamatti, the film’s star, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph have chances of winning in the supporting actor and actress categories, and films that triumph in the acting and screenwriting races have a nearly unbeatable purse for best movie. If Payne scores a best director nomination, it’s a good sign that this underdog could bypass all the big-budget extravaganzas and go all the way.
Greta Gerwig’s fantastic plastic comedy was indisputably he 2023 Movie: This billion-dollar blockbuster was received like a rock concert in theaters, and its creative twists had Hollywood types marveling at what Gerwig could get away with. Although Oscar voters have had a bad reputation for ignoring mega-budget hits, they are usually willing to make an exception for films with a distinctive point of view and a high level of craftsmanship, which the delightfully decorated “Barbie” has in abundance. A fun movie full of heart and a standout in this group of contenders, “Barbie” is limited only by the not insignificant number of voters who will be thinking: “Can I really give Hollywood’s most prestigious award to a toy?”
Martin Scorsese’s well-regarded film would have a better chance of winning the Oscar if “Oppenheimer” had been a contender in a different year: between these two weighty three-hour historical dramas, voters may consider Nolan’s more significant, simply because it made almost a billion dollars worldwide. Still, Scorsese, 81, has won only one Oscar and the clock is ticking for the academy to give him another. If its star, Lily Gladstone, emerges victorious from a fiercely competitive race for best actress, that could help burnish the film’s chances of picking up another major award.
The Venice Film Festival kicks off awards season in earnest each August, and the Emma Stone films that screen there often get a sensational launching pad: Just look at Oscar favorites like “La La Land” and “ Birdman” and “The Favorite,” the latter of which began Stone’s very fruitful partnership with director Yorgos Lanthimos. His most recent film, “Poor Things,” won the Golden Lion at Venice this year and quickly established himself as a top contender, capable of competing for up to three acting nominations (for Stone and his supporting actors Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe) and a host of accolades for its stunning costumes, cinematography, production design and visual effects. There’s no doubt it will be one of the best films, but is there a narrative that will take the film and Stone to the top in a busy year?
Celine Song’s directorial debut was a huge indie hit this summer, but this intimate romantic drama was in danger of slipping once bigger, louder rivals arrived in the fall. Fortunately, “Past Lives” begins this awards season in good shape, winning the best picture trophy at the Gotham Awards, five nominations at the Independent Spirit Awards and a key nomination for best drama at the Golden Globes. Like “The Holdovers,” it’s a smaller-scale movie that some voters simply love, and that passion will count for a lot in this field.
There may be no more auspicious festival award than the Audience Award voted on by attendees at the Toronto International Film Festival: every film that won there over the last decade earned a best picture nomination, and three of them: “ 12 Years a Slave”, “Green Book” and “Nomadland” – in fact they took the main Oscar. This bodes very well for writer-director Cord Jefferson’s contemporary comedy, “American Fiction,” which was a big hit in Toronto, earned crucial nominations at the Golden Globes and Indie Spirits, and should give its lead , Jeffrey Wright, the first Oscar. nomination from his long career. (I should note that Jefferson is a friend.)
Bradley Cooper’s first directorial effort, “A Star Is Born,” deserved better at the Oscars. He only won the original song trophy when many other things were also worth recognizing, including Cooper’s lead performance. Then again, Cooper had only himself to blame for that outcome: he was so determined to get the directing nomination, which he ultimately missed, that he didn’t give his performance the boost it deserved. I wonder if something similar might happen this year: Cooper’s drama with Leonard Bernstein, “Maestro,” is an even bigger change of direction, and while he delivers exactly the kind of transformative, makeup-wearing real-person performance that excites voters of the Oscar, The fate of the “Maestro” currently seems to depend on whether the board of directors will finally admit Cooper to the club.
Fashion studio Neon has a knack for guiding Palme d’Or winners from the Cannes stage to the Oscar inner circle, and the French courtroom drama “Anatomy of a Fall” could well follow in the footsteps of “Parasite.” ” and “Triangle of a Fall” by Neon. Sadness.” It helps that the protagonist, Sandra Hüller, has enough strength to enter the race for best actress, although the film was hurt by France’s decision to submit “The Taste of Things” as its international Oscar candidate : As fans of “RRR” found last year, it is difficult for world cinema to penetrate the list of best films without corresponding recognition in the international feature film category.
Can Todd Haynes finally get a best picture nomination? Although the director’s drama “Carol” came very close, “May Dec” is the most viable contender he’s ever had, a favorite among critics groups and a widespread topic of conversation since its debut on Netflix. If Natalie Portman, Julianne Moore and Charles Melton get acting nominations and writer Samy Burch gets a nomination for original screenplay, a spot in the best picture race should follow, but Haynes and his work have proven too smart to the room before. Let’s hope the tastes of academia have caught up.
Jonathan Glazer’s bold Holocaust drama is one of the most acclaimed films of the year, the likely winner of the international feature Oscar, and could even land Glazer an auteur spot in the best director category. Still, his chances of landing best picture are harder to predict. Every other contender on this list is likely to get at least one acting nomination, and any such recognition for “Zone” would be a huge surprise. It would also be the hardest arthouse movie to make the best movies list in a long time: when older, more traditional voters type the film into their academy app and are met with a black screen and several minutes of music disturbing, will they? Remain seated during this unusual opening or close the application to call technical support?
This musical version of Alice Walker’s classic novel has a late-breaking push, helped by a strong Christmas Day box office return, to land it on the best movies list. Still, it has missed out on some key nominations, failing to nab the American Film Institute’s populist award. top 10 list or even get a Golden Globe nomination for best comedy or musical, which should have been a given. Earning a supporting nomination from the Screen Actors Guild on January 10 is almost necessary for “The Color Purple” to rise on this list.
Last season, when the academy announced the semifinalists in a wide variety of lower categories, the Netflix war movie “All Quiet on the Western Front” had a surprisingly strong showing that heralded a stellar nine Oscar nominations and four wins. That’s why I’m keeping an eye on the streamer’s Spanish-language plane crash drama, “Society of the Snow,” which made the international feature shortlist and also appeared as a semi-finalist in visual effects, music, makeup and hairstyling. . (even beating “Barbie” in the latter category). If all of these branches are already taking notice, don’t be surprised if “The Snow Society” beats out a better-known contender on the morning of the Oscar nominations.
