by During his tour of the Middle East this week, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken sounded optimistic about the prospect of Arab governments coming together to plan the future of Gaza after the war, saying he found them willing to “do things important to help stabilize Gaza.” and revitalize,” as he said on Monday.
But publicly, at least, Arab officials have distanced themselves from discussions about how to rebuild and govern Gaza, particularly as Israeli bombs continue to fall.
Instead, they have emphasized that Israel and the United States must implement a ceasefire and then create a serious path toward creating a Palestinian state. The Biden administration also calls for a Palestinian state, which Israel’s government opposes.
“Without a sovereign, stable and independent nation for the Palestinians, nothing else matters, because a long-term solution to the conflict we are seeing will not be found,” said Prince Khalid bin Bandar, Saudi ambassador to the United Kingdom. , said the BBC on Tuesday.
And on Sunday, during a press conference with Blinken, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman of Qatar said: “There is no peace in the region without a comprehensive and just solution.”
Officially, Arab governments have mostly dismissed the idea that they could engage in post-war planning ahead of a ceasefire, arguing that this would be akin to helping Israel clean up its mess. And they are reluctant to be seen participating in Israeli visions for the future of Gaza.
But Arab and American officials also say that the Palestinian Authority, weakened by successive Israeli governments, is the natural candidate to govern postwar Gaza. That stance has not changed even though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu all but ruled out any role for the authority there.
On Monday, when Abbas met with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, it was partly to coordinate positions in Gaza, a Palestinian official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The official noted that Abbas was pushing for a united Arab position that supports a broader Israeli-Palestinian agreement, rather than dealing with Gaza in isolation.
Abbas participated in a summit in Jordan on Wednesday with King Abdullah and Sisi to discuss the situation in Gaza. Abbas hopes that a committee including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the Palestinians will meet in the future to further coordinate diplomatic efforts, the Palestinian official said.
“What is happening is consensus building on different paths to the day after,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, a London-based research group.
Arab public opinion, deeply hostile toward Israel and the United States, especially since the war began, is important, Bader Al-Saif said., professor at Kuwait University.
“Any day-after scenario that does not satisfy the masses’ quest for dignity and justice for the Palestinians will eventually affect the different states in the region,” he said. “I would take that into account if I were a policymaker.”
Arab countries have different views on what a future government in Gaza should look like and how capable the Palestinian Authority is of assuming power. Before the war, Gaza was ruled for years by Hamas, the armed group that carried out the October 7 attacks in Israel.
Palestinian analysts say that to govern Gaza, Fatah, the Palestinian Authority’s ruling party, would have to achieve unity with Hamas. They predicted that Hamas would remain a fundamental part of Palestinian politics, although Israel has repeatedly said it will not stop fighting until Hamas is destroyed.
In 2007, Hamas seized power in Gaza, while the Palestinian Authority retained limited control of the West Bank, dividing Palestinians territorially and politically.
“Abbas and the Palestinian Authority want to bring Gaza back under their administration; they believe the war has created a great opportunity for them,” said Jehad Harb, a Ramallah-based analyst. “But if they do not reconcile with Hamas, they will have difficulties governing there. “
