by The CIA director is set to give new impetus to negotiations over the release of hostages held in Gaza and an extended ceasefire, according to US officials, who said he would meet with senior Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari officials in Europe. .
Officials hope to close a wide gap between Israel and Hamas, especially on two issues: the duration of any pause in fighting and the fate of Hamas leaders in Gaza, according to officials briefed on the talks.
Here’s a look at where the talks stand.
How are the negotiations going?
A week-long truce in November allowed the release of more than 100 of the hostages taken in the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel; 240 Palestinian prisoners were released as part of that agreement. Since then, both sides have adopted seemingly intractable positions for another similar agreement.
Talks have progressed in fits and starts, with the head of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad meeting with Qatari officials both in Qatar and Europe. Many of Hamas’s political leaders are based in Qatar. Egypt, which borders the Gaza Strip, has also played a key role.
William J. Burns, director of the CIA, will meet with senior Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari officials, according to US officials. They said Israel’s apparent willingness to accept a longer cessation of hostilities as part of any new hostage release has created a new opening for negotiations.
Any new deal would likely include gradual hostage releases, although the White House hopes a larger deal leading to the release of the remaining hostages is possible. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the delicate diplomacy.
In recent weeks, mediators have presented multiple plans, although with little evident progress. The duration of a proposed ceasefire has ranged from weeks to months. Leaks of some of the proposals to the press have sparked controversy in Israel, where right-wing politicians said they would oppose the plans they said would prematurely end the war.
Brett McGurk, the White House’s top Middle East coordinator, returned to the region on Sunday to work on hostage releases, according to two US officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
What conditions are being proposed for a new ceasefire?
Hamas officials say they will only release the remaining hostages in Gaza, believed to number more than 100, as part of a comprehensive ceasefire. Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, said on Sunday that he would not accept any deal for a permanent ceasefire that would leave Hamas in control of Gaza.
In a recent framework for a deal, mediators proposed a gradual release of remaining Palestinian hostages and prisoners, aiming for a stable ceasefire, a senior Western diplomat and a regional diplomat said.
What are the conflict points?
The biggest hurdle is whether a ceasefire would be designated temporary, like the last one, or permanent.
Israeli officials have suggested they could consider a permanent ceasefire if Hamas leaders in Gaza leave the strip and go into exile, the two diplomats said.
Hamas officials have rejected that idea. “Hamas and its leaders are on their land in Gaza,” Husam Badran, a senior Hamas official, said in a text message. “We are not leaving.”
Another possible impediment to this plan: Netanyahu said in November that he had told Mossad “to act against Hamas leaders wherever they were,” likely raising fears within Hamas about whether the leaders would be less safe outside Gaza.
What happens after the war ends?
Another avenue of negotiation has to do with the future of Gaza after the guns fall silent.
Biden administration officials have said they expect the Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, to return to control of Gaza. American officials would like to see both areas included in a future Palestinian state.
Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, ousting the rival Fatah party, which dominates the Palestinian Authority. If Hamas remains in Gaza after the war, it would likely prove a formidable obstacle.
Netanyahu has largely ruled out the return of the Palestinian Authority, in its current form, to governing Gaza. He has also indicated that he would oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state after the war.
To further complicate matters, the Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas, faces serious internal challenges. Polls regularly show that a majority of Palestinians want Abbas to resign. He was last elected to a four-year term in 2005, and critics accuse him of presiding over an increasingly autocratic government that has failed to end Israeli rule.
