Layoffs point to Xi Jinping’s quiet reorganization of the Chinese military

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Among the ousted officials were some of the brightest rising stars in President Xi Jinping’s military: two generals who oversaw satellite launches and manned space missions; an admiral who helped entrench Beijing’s presence in the disputed South China Sea; and a missile commander who had It honed China’s response capacity. to a possible nuclear war.

They were among nine high-ranking Chinese military figures who were recently removed as delegates to the country’s Communist Party-led legislature, abruptly and without official explanation.

Experts say the move indicates that Xi’s latest offensive to root out alleged corruption and other misconduct in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been gaining momentum and focuses on politically sensitive agencies responsible for developing weapons and facilities. military. In October, China suddenly fired the defense minister, who had worked for years on the military’s weapons procurement system. Months earlier, two commanders of the Rocket Force, which controls China’s nuclear missiles, were replaced.

Since coming to power in 2012, Xi has launched harsh, high-decibel crackdowns on Communist Party officials and generals. This latest military campaign, however, has been carried out for the most part quietly, without any official acknowledgment that it is even underway.

Experts tracking the Chinese military said Xi’s strategy appeared to be a surgical strike designed to assert his control over the arms sector. They noted that the layoffs appeared to exclude former Xi allies, at least for now.

The boss suggested a “selective crackdown” that “serves as a warning that even in the most critical technology sectors, the party is willing to take strong measures to ensure the long-term healthy development of these sectors,” he said. Tai Ming Cheungprofessor at the University of California, San Diego who has long studied China’s weapons development programs.

Professor Tai noted that China’s weapons development programs are one of the “most secret” aspects of its military, into which huge funds have been invested over the past decades. “It is ripe for large-scale corruption,” he wrote in an email.

China announced the dismissals of the legislature, called the National People’s Congress, in a concise statement late on Friday. Two days earlier, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (a top political advisory body) said it had expelled three executives from military-related state-owned companies: one from China North Industries Group Corporation, or Norinco, an arms conglomerate; and the others from the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation.

The anti-corruption campaign may tarnish Xi’s image of political invulnerability, because all the officers who have been dismissed owed him their promotion.

On the other hand, Xi’s bold moves against serving military officers are a sign that he retains unrivaled control despite China’s economic woes, he said. Christopher K. Johnsonformer CIA analyst on Chinese politics.

“Xi’s willingness to shoulder the shame of such a massive purge shows how determined he is to ensure his military can carry out its mandate to ‘fight and win wars,'” Johnson said.

Not long after Xi came to power, he launched a crackdown on corruption in the military, warning that such abuses would endanger China’s security as the country’s rivalry with the West intensified. Dozens of commanders and generals were convicted of corruption in the sale of assets, contracts or military promotions.

But at the time he was still consolidating his power as China’s leader, and that crackdown focused primarily on retired officials. “Now, his power is incontestable enough that he can go to the root of the problem with relative abandon,” Johnson said.

Military investigators “have long identified weapons procurement as one of the main areas of corruption in the PLA,” according to Professor Tai. But in previous anti-corruption campaigns, few of the officials known to have been arrested had worked in this sector. “This time, the defense and weapons procurement industries appear to be among the top areas to target,” he said.

It is less clear why Xi decided to act now. The first visible signs of the crackdown were the dismissal last year of the two rocket force commanders, followed by General Li Shangfu, the defense minister. Problems found in the rocket’s strength may have sparked a broader investigation, experts say.

Some of the officers ousted in recent days had crossed paths with General Li when he was at the General Armament Department, which oversaw procurement, or at the agency that succeeded him after Xi moved to reorganize the military in 2015. But others did not, suggesting the investigations extend beyond General Li’s circle, said Yao Cheng, a former Chinese naval officer now living in the United States.

Among the dismissed officers were Dai Laihanga retired air force commander who has pushed for pilots to get a more realistic workout. Another was Jin Xinchun, a naval commander who previously deputy chief of the South Sea fleet, which encompasses the South China Sea. He previously served as head of the fleet equipment department. Another was Li Yuchao, a general in China’s missile force who had previously supervised exercises for launching a nuclear counterattack after suffering a nuclear attack. He was removed from office in 2023.

In the short term, high-level restructuring could slow the deployment of some weapons or facilities as they are more closely studied for potential defects and contracts are scrutinized for problems, he said. Ou Si-fu, an expert on the Chinese military at Taiwan’s National Defense and Security Research Institute. But those potential delays are likely to be limited, he said.

It also remains uncertain whether scrutiny has extended to officials and commanders whom Xi named to the senior leadership team for his third term as Communist Party leader in 2022.

They include Gen. Zhang Youxia, who is second only to Mr. Xi in the military hierarchy and has long-standing personal ties to him. general zhang He was previously director of the PLA General Equipment Department and its renewed successor. In at least three Communist Party officials in the Politburo (the party council made up of 24 senior officials) they rose through the ranks in the arms or aerospace sector.

“Basically, Xi Jinping already has on hand all the damaging material that could be used against all military officers and party-government officials, so he could find a reason to act against anyone at any time,” Mr. Ou said. Regarding the fate of General Zhang and other senior Politburo officials, Mr. Ou said: “To date, the signs are that they can survive.”

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