by Gail Collins: Bret, I have a feeling this is the last time I’ll ask you about the Republican presidential primaries. Things seem to be going fast. Ron DeSantis is out, don’t think we’re going to miss him.
Bret Stephens: No.
Gail: If DeSantis weren’t such a terrible candidate, this overthrow of his campaign might be a little sad. But as it is, it’s actually kind of boring. DeSantis’ endorsement of Donald Trump as “superior to the incumbent” wasn’t exactly moving.
Bret: Trump’s endorsement was disgraceful but probably inevitable, politically speaking. If Trump wins the presidency, DeSantis will have to live with him as governor; If Trump loses, he can try to court his voters in 2028. That’s assuming Trump isn’t on the ballot in 2028.
And, of course, there’s still a certain South Carolina governor left.
Gail: New Hampshire is tomorrow, and even if Nikki Haley wins, she’s not likely to go any further. Which means that Trump, for all practical purposes, will be the nominee by the middle of this week. Do you want to offer some positive thoughts?
Bret: I have none.
Gail: Oh, come on. I know you’re anti-Donald, but at least tell us something cheerful that the rational part of you is thinking.
Bret: I think you’re referring to an essay I wrote titled “The Case for Trump… for Someone Who Wants Him to Lose.” Some readers accused me of normalizing Trump. But it was written in the spirit of knowing your enemy.
Trump’s opponents have consistently done us all a disservice by underestimating his strength, misinterpreting his appeal, and underestimating (borrow a word) his presidency. And we have done our part an even greater disservice by too often being smug and self-righteous.
Gail: You know, it’s been a long time since I’ve heard a Trump critic articulate a defense of Trump. I appreciate the opportunity for a necessary reorganization. I’m not looking forward to it, but continue.
Bret: Their strength came from seeing and saying what most of America’s coastal elites were not: that life was not getting better for America’s middle and working class, that rampant immigration was a serious problem, and that the institutions of The elite, particularly academia and the media, had become preachy and untrustworthy. His appeal lay less in his intolerance than in the sense that he hated and was hated by the people they hated, and he didn’t hold back. And his presidency was not the unmitigated disaster his critics claim: Operation Warp Speed was a triumph, as was the Abraham Accords, as was a fairly robust economy, at least until the pandemic.
Gail: Accompany him in Operation Warp Speed, which allowed for relatively efficient production of the Covid vaccine. I will take your word that the Abraham Accords had a positive long-term outcome.
However, let’s not overlook some details such as the large federal deficits caused, in large part, by a huge tax cut for the rich. And on January 6th. The bottom line is that I understand your idea. Although I don’t agree with it, it is a well thought out drift.
Bret: If we want to defeat Trump in November, we’ll have to do something much better than keep repeating, “Orange Man is bad.”
Gail: Very ready for your to-do list.
Bret: Well, it’s too late for President Biden, and my preferred option remains to see the first lady persuade her husband to step aside at the time of the Democratic convention, so the party can choose a new nominee ( ideally Gretchen Whitmer, the representative of Michigan). governor, with Admiral Jim Stavridis, a former NATO commander, as her running mate because of his seriousness in foreign policy.
But let’s assume that’s not happening. My first advice to Biden is: abortion, abortion, abortion.
Gail: Certainly a good topic for Democrats, one that Trump, who was never anti-choice until he considered running for president, would have a hard time arguing about. Until now, his evasion has simply been to talk about doctors murdering fully developed fetuses.
While DeSantis was in the race, Trump had the advantage of appearing more moderate than…someone. But he will now face Biden, a lifelong Catholic and family man, who still believes in women’s rights for all.
Bret: Which brings me to my second piece of advice for Biden: judges, judges, judges. Abortion rights are not the only thing at stake if Trump is elected. Clarence Thomas has suggested reversing the decision on marriage equality and even the right to contraception. That should motivate one or two voters interested in the possibility of having legal non-procreative sex during their lives. Maybe Biden should run an ad saying, “Vote for Trump and you’ll be, you know, in every way but the good.”
Gail: Wow, picturing that sign now.
Bret: I offer this as campaign advice to Biden. But you should stop yapping about how great Bidenomics has been. Most Americans Just Aren’t That Happy About the Economy – or how Trump presents an existential threat to democracy. The latter could be true, but I doubt he will move the electoral needle.
Gail: I don’t know, January 6th seems like a pretty powerful image to me.
Either way, you seem to think Biden should run a negative campaign, about how bad Trump is instead of anything great Biden can do. I would like to see at least some of the latter.
Bret: Fear works as a political tactic. I only suspect that the Democrats have exaggerated the January 6 letter, so it no longer has the emotional resonance it used to have.
Gail: Well, I’d love to see you discuss these things in person. Do you think there will be presidential debates this fall?
Bret: Third piece of advice for Biden: Offer to debate Trump three times. The contrast can be instructive.
Gail: Yes to debates. Although Biden is not the best public speaker in the world, it is interesting that Trump refused to debate his Republican opponents.
Bret: All Biden has to do to win is not lose his temper or lose his train of thought.
Gail: I just want to go back for a second to your thoughts on abortion and the courts. When Trump speaks to conservative audiences, he sometimes takes credit for rolling back Roe v. Wade, since he nominated the judges who put Dobbs on top. It will be interesting to see how he spins it this fall.
On the plus side, Biden can remind the country how successful he has been in repairing bridges and roads and getting much-needed new infrastructure projects underway. He has started a real battle against climate change and coastal erosion. Under her administration, women have more means of protection against their gun-toting ex-boyfriends. She has been fighting hard for lower drug prices and relief for former students burdened by excessive college debt.
I know some of those accomplishments don’t warm your heart.
Bret: Probably not as much as yours, although I like the infrastructure. The truth is, if Biden were running against Nikki Haley, he would vote for her. But voting for Trump is only an invitation to furies, both internal and external. His victory would be great for Vladimir Putin and devastating for Volodymyr Zelensky. He would weaken the center right and center left while energizing both MAGA faithful and social justice warriors. It would degrade our culture, weaken our democracy, disorient our allies, and drive ordinary people crazy.
If the price for avoiding that is a mediocre Biden presidency, I’ll take it.
Gail: Well, it’s not an endorsement I expect to see cited at the Democratic convention, but I bet it could mobilize some of the reluctant Republicans. “Tell me if!”
Bret: Since we can’t stay away from the topic of Trump, any guesses on who his VP pick will be?
Gail: Well, Mike Pence obviously ruled out a return with his shocking decision to actually follow the Constitution after Trump lost the 2020 election. There will be a new face and there is a widespread theory that it will be a woman. It makes a lot of sense: It would soften Trump’s image, and there are plenty of right-wing elected officials who would be happy to support his candidacy.
Bret: Very sexist of you – I can think of many women who are Trump’s equal in the horrible, bad, and insensitive department. Arizona’s Kari Lake? Give me some more reasonable names.
Gail: Nikki Haley actually is, but there’s no way Trump would pick someone who has such a high profile, not to mention someone who’s been running for his seat all winter.
Bret: I think she has also ruled herself out, which is a credit to her. She has even been going after Trump’s mental fitness after he appeared to mistake her for Nancy Pelosi.
Gail: Kristi Noem, the governor of South Dakota, and recently Rep. Elise Stefanik of upstate New York, are mentioned a lot. Stefanik is the one whose interrogation of Harvard’s principal put the poor woman in a brief downfall from office.
Trump reportedly called Stefanik “a killer,” which is a huge compliment to him. She’s only 39, but I can imagine her getting the nod.
What do you think?
Bret: Stefanik or Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina. It’s nice and ingratiating, a big drink of water. She is aggressive and unscrupulous, a triple shot of moonshine. And unlike Pence, she would follow Trump straight to hell. If it were up to me, he’d pick Scott, which makes me think he’ll pick Stefanik.
Gail: On the question of terrible decisions by Republicans, I generally follow their instincts. But I do think he wants a woman, so Stefanik seems like a serious possibility.
Bret: Gail, before I sign off, I must praise Sam Roberts’ wonderful obituary in The Times for Edward Jay Epstein, the writer and journalist who raised vexing questions about everything from the assassination of John F. Kennedy to the loyalties of Edward Snowden. Epstein wasn’t always right, but he cultivated the art of intelligent skepticism better than anyone. In this age of credulity and certainty, we need more gadflies like him as models of what good journalism should be.
