by Jailed former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party won the most seats in this week’s parliamentary elections, issuing a sharp rebuke to the country’s powerful generals and plunging the political system into chaos.
While military leaders had hoped the election would end the political turmoil that has consumed the country since Khan’s ouster in 2022, it has instead plunged it into an even deeper crisis, analysts said.
Never before in the history of the country had a politician been so successful in an election without the support of the generals, much less after facing their iron fist.
In Thursday’s vote, candidates from Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, appeared to win about 97 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament, the country’s election commission reported Saturday. The military’s preferred party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PMLN, led by three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, won at least 73 seats, the commission said. Only seven seats remained unaccounted for, which is not enough to change the result, the commission reported.
While Khan-aligned candidates were set to be the largest group in Parliament, they still fell short of a simple majority, sparking a race between Khan and Sharif’s parties to win over other lawmakers and establish a coalition. government.
Khan’s party leaders also said they were planning court challenges in dozens of elections they believe were rigged by the military, and said they would urge their supporters to hold peaceful protests if the remaining results were not published by Sunday.
The success of Khan’s party was a dizzying setback in an election that the military thought would be an easy victory for Sharif. Before last week’s election, Pakistan’s powerful generals imprisoned Khan, arrested candidates allied with him and intimidated his supporters into driving his party off the playing field, or so they thought. Instead, the election results confirmed that Khan remains a formidable force in Pakistani politics, despite his overthrow and subsequent imprisonment.
On Friday night, Khan’s party gave a victory speech using a computer-generated voice to simulate that of Khan, who has been jailed since August. “I congratulate you all on his victory in the 2024 elections. I had full confidence that everyone would come out and vote,” the AI-generated voice said. “His massive participation has surprised everyone.”
The success of Khan’s party upended the decades-old political playbook governing Pakistan, a nuclear-armed nation of 240 million. Throughout those years, the military has exercised ultimate authority, guiding its policy behind a veil of secrecy, and civilian leaders have generally come to power only with its support, or have been ousted from office for their firm hand.
The vote also showed that Khan’s strategy of preaching reform and railing against the military has resonated deeply with Pakistanis – particularly young people – who are disillusioned with the political system. He also demonstrated that his loyal base of supporters was apparently immune to old military tactics to demoralize voters, including arresting supporters and imposing long prison sentences on their political leaders days before the vote.
Khan, a former cricket star turned populist politician, was sentenced to a total of 34 years in prison after being convicted in four separate cases on charges including leaking state secrets and illegal marriage, which he called politically motivated.
Three of those verdicts were issued just days before the vote, an old tactic used by the military, analysts say. But early estimates show that about 48 percent of voters turned out for the election, according to the Free and Fair Elections Network, an organization of civil society groups. Voter turnout in the country’s last two elections was around 50 percent, the organization said.
The results were “both a vote against the system and a vote against the status quo, against the other two major political parties that have been ruling the country and their dynastic politics,” said Zahid Hussain, an Islamabad-based analyst, referring to the army as the establishment.
Without a simple majority, most analysts believe it will be difficult for Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, to form a government. Some PTI leaders have also suggested that the party would rather remain in opposition than lead a weakened coalition government with Khan still behind bars.
Despite trailing in the polls, Sharif gave a victory speech to a crowd of supporters of his party, the PMLN, on Friday. He also invited other parties to join his to form a coalition government, suggesting that such a coalition would not include PTI.
“Today we invite everyone to rebuild this wounded Pakistan and sit with us,” he said in a speech in Lahore, capital of Punjab province.
But any coalition Sharif manages to form will face serious political challenges. The PMLN-led coalition government after Khan’s ouster was deeply unpopular and widely criticized for failing to address an economic crisis that has hit the country and sent inflation to record levels.
The incoming government is also likely to face a serious legitimacy crisis. Thursday’s election has also been criticized by some as one of the least credible in the country’s history, and delays in the release of election results have led to widespread accusations that the military altered the vote count to tilt the vote. balance in favor of the PMLN.
With the PTI promising bruises and long court battles over the results, it could be some time before any party manages to form a government.
“We will pursue all legal options and all constitutional options,” PTI leader Raoof Hasan said.
Zia ur-Rehman contributed reports.
