by For all his bluster, no one in Donald J. Trump’s inner political circle really believes that a criminal conviction will help him with the independent voters and suburban women who lost him the presidency in 2020.
But since Trump was first impeached, he and his team have viewed securing the nomination as a vital imperative. And as he is about to become the first former U.S. president to stand trial, some of those advisers — who long ago realized that his freedom is intertwined with the outcome of the 2024 election — see a silver lining in the calendar.
A New York judge on Thursday set a March 25 start date for a trial on charges brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin L. Bragg accusing Trump of falsifying business records to cover up refunds for a payment of silence made in 2016 to a porn star who said she had a past affair with him.
Legal observers have commented that, compared to the charges Trump faces for retaining sensitive national security documents and obstructing efforts to recover them, or the charges accusing him of conspiring to defraud the United States by attempting to overturn an election, silence- The case of money seems much less important.
And those hush money charges represent a low-level felony and, comparatively, a potential minor prison sentence.
“There is absolutely no crime in this illegal case,” said Trump spokesman Steven Cheung, insisting that it is an effort to interfere with the election and that Bragg should “focus on cleaning up New York.” and about local crime.
On a personal level, Trump is deeply unhappy with the case. He implies sleaze about his personal life and was outraged when details of the secret money became public in 2018, while he was president. He has made it clear to his associates that he wants her gone.
But politically, Trump’s advisers have exploited the secret money allegation to great effect. It was the first impeachment of four he faced in the 2024 primary cycle, boosting his fundraising and prompting wary Republicans, including his opponent, to question the charges.
The Trump team’s focus since Bragg’s indictment has been to portray his entire criminal exposure (91 felonies in total) as part of a vast conspiracy by President Biden and Democrats to stop him.
“This is all coming from the Department of Justice, this is all coming from Washington,” Trump said after the hearing setting a trial date, expanding his baseless claim to several civil actions he has faced. He once again tried to delay the process, without success.
“Everything is rigged, it’s a rigged state, it’s a rigged city, it’s a shame,” Trump said, shortly after Judge Juan M. Merchán said the case involved “serious allegations” of covering up a bribe. to affect an election.
Trump offered no support for his claim that every legal case he has faced is being manipulated from above, and never has been.
And there is a significant downside for him to having a local trial: Unlike federal cases, Trump cannot try to pardon himself if he becomes president again. Still, questions remain about the practical realities of imposing a prison sentence on an elected president in a local case.
And as a matter of stark political optics before Election Day, the hush money trial that comes first means a month of intense media attention focused on issues that might concern the public less than they would have if the federal trial for electoral subversion in Washington He had gone first, as expected.
“You can get a lot of witnesses who are going to argue that this was not inappropriate, that it is done all the time, and in fact being willing to pay for it is not an acceptance of any guilt, it’s just that I didn’t want publicity.” , and it’s done quite often,” said Newt Gingrich, former Republican speaker of the House of Representatives and Trump ally.
Trump allies have repeatedly pointed to the fact that Bragg is a Democrat and that his predecessor, along with federal prosecutors, did not bring charges related to the facts of the case, to emphasize their claims of victimhood. (Mr. Bragg represents a district where Democrats overwhelmingly make up the people registered to vote.)
Trump complained Thursday that the trial would keep him off the campaign trail. But in January he decided to attend two civil trials he was facing that he was not required to attend, in part because, as one aide said privately, he considered the appearances to be campaign events.
The Trump campaign has been preparing to hold evening events with Trump in New York and elsewhere during the hush money trial.
“I can’t overstate this,” Gingrich said. “Donald Trump is not a candidate. “Donald Trump is the leader of a movement, and the leaders of the movements are profoundly different psychologically than the candidates.” The reason, he said, is because his followers are “followers.” “They are not voters.”
Trump is about to test the limits of the benefits his political campaign can reap from the criminal justice system.
The case’s star witness, Michael D. Cohen, worked for Trump for years and provided testimony at a 2019 House hearing that helped fuel the New York attorney general’s successful civil fraud case against Trump and his company. Trump and his allies have repeatedly denounced Cohen, who has laid bare his experiences working for the former president in a tell-all book and in interviews.
A parade of other witnesses from that period may also offer testimony that you find problematic.
And in three different court cases in Manhattan, three juries have ruled against Trump or his companies in the past two years. While turning Bragg into a villain may work politically with Republicans, it has no broader impact, some strategists argue.
“I think the mistake Trump is making is that at the end of the day this will not be Alvin Bragg, it will be a jury of his fellow citizens, and Americans respect the jury system and take seriously the verdicts that juries render. ”said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster.
However, Trump was elected in 2016 despite a long series of negative incidents related to his character. And polls vary on how many of his supporters who say they will support him would abandon him if he is convicted in a criminal case.
“After the last eight years, that self-selection alone is enough to say they won’t have much trouble justifying an adverse legal ruling, much less one on dubious grounds,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist.
