by US officials believe that classified US documents about the Ukraine war effort that have surfaced online are likely real and the result of a leak, but that some of the documents may have been doctored before they were released, a US official said on Saturday. senior US official.
The official described that as the government’s “working theory” pending investigation and review.
The documents, posted in recent days as photos on Twitter and Telegram, describe Ukraine’s military strength, the state of the conflict, casualty figures and the burn rate of HIMARS long-range rocket systems that the United States provided to Ukraine. Ukraine. Some of them bear a date of March 1.
“We are aware of the reports of social media posts, and the Department is reviewing the matter,” Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said Friday.
The Justice Department has launched its own investigation, a spokesman said Friday. “We have been in communication with the Department of Defense regarding this matter and have begun an investigation,” the spokesperson said. “We decline to comment further.”
The documents appear to reveal what the United States has learned through intelligence signals (intercepted electronic communications) about Russian plans and operations. A former US intelligence official has said there could be dire consequences if a stream of intelligence signals about Russia is exposed.
The New York Times first reported on the documents.
It is not known who is behind the alleged leak.
After reports of the leak, Ukraine saying President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and senior military and security officials discussed ways to prevent the leak of military information at a meeting on Friday.
according to a investigator At Bellingcat, the online research group, the documents first appeared on the anonymous image board 4chan in March.
Since then, different versions of the documents have appeared online, citing diverging figures on Russian troop casualties in the war. The differing accounts and the fact that the numbers are well below the casualty estimates made by independent military analysts and the Pentagon have fueled speculation that the documents have been doctored.
In one version, the number of Russian soldiers killed in action was put at between 16,000 and 17,500, compared to an assumed 71,500 Ukrainian soldiers killed.
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army General Mark Milley, said in November that up to that point about 100,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded in the war, and that Ukraine had likely suffered a similar level of casualties.
The documents, including maps and equipment lists, appear to have been folded and then smoothed out.
John Sullivan, a former US ambassador to Russia and deputy secretary of state, told NBC News’ Andrea Mitchell on Friday that the documents should be treated with caution.
“There are some indications that … there are some aspects of the document that have some authenticity, but there are also indications that it may be a Russian disinformation campaign, which they are very good at,” Sullivan said.
Coverage of the documents by Russian state media has been “extremely muted,” said Bret Schafer, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund’s Alliance to Secure Democracy. “Almost all of them have directly quoted reports from others to keep them as distanced as possible.”
Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to President Zelenskyy, said in a mail on Telegram that the documents amounted to a “bluff” by Russia and that if Moscow had access to secret information, it would not publicize it and risk losing crucial intelligence.
“If you have a working pipeline for receiving intelligence from the Pentagon, you’re not going to destroy it just for a day of newsworthy headlines. If he has information about the enemy’s level of support and military plans, he will pretend he doesn’t,” Podolyak said.
“If you try to pretend you know something, then you don’t know anything. This is a bluff, dust in the eyes.”
The alleged leak comes amid widespread expectations of a Ukrainian counter-offensive as the weather warms. Said Podolyak: “As for the actual counteroffensive plans, the Russian troops will certainly be the first to get acquainted with them. I guess that will happen very soon.”
michael kosnar contributed.
