by The Biden administration on Friday dismissed a call from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to enter into negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, showing no sign that weakening political support for U.S. military aid to Kiev had made President Biden more inclined to make concessions to Moscow.
During his two-hour Kremlin interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who now broadcasts independently online, Putin offered lengthy defenses of his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but said he was prepared to resolve the conflict diplomatically.
“We are ready to negotiate,” Putin told Carlson in the interview, which was published Thursday. “They should tell the current Ukrainian leadership to stop and come to the negotiating table,” he added, referring to the US government.
The Russian leader spoke at a moment of apparent influence, following the failure of a summer Ukrainian counteroffensive that failed to make substantial progress and as the Biden administration is struggling to win congressional approval for desperately needed additional military aid for Kiev. .
It is not the first time Putin has expressed a willingness to negotiate over Ukraine’s fate, and Western officials have long been skeptical about his intentions. But because it was his first interview with an American media figure since the invasion, his call for talks has additional resonance, analysts said.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials say the best the Ukrainian military can hope for over the next year, especially without more U.S. help, is to defend its current positions. Still, Biden officials say they are not considering the idea of pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate with Putin.
“Both we and President Zelensky have said on numerous occasions that we believe this war will end through negotiations,” a National Security Council spokesperson said in a statement. “Despite Mr. Putin’s words, we have not seen any action that indicates he is interested in ending this war. If it were, it would withdraw its forces and stop its incessant attacks on Ukraine.”
U.S. officials had previously assessed that Putin had no intention of seriously negotiating until after the U.S. presidential election in November. Putin, they say, wants to wait to see if former President Donald J. Trump could return to the White House and offer him more favorable terms.
In an interview last spring, Trump said the “horrible” conflict in Ukraine must end immediately and that, if re-elected, he would negotiate a deal to “end that war in one day.”
The Biden administration has supported Ukraine’s stated desire to regain territory Russia has occupied since its invasion. Russia now occupies about 18 percent of Ukrainian territory.
American officials have also long insisted that, despite the more than $75 billion in aid the United States has provided to Ukraine, it is not up to Washington to dictate whether Kiev participates in peace talks and what the terms are. . “Ultimately, it is up to Ukraine to decide its course in the negotiations,” the National Security Council statement said.
Many analysts were also skeptical about Putin’s intentions. Sergey Radchenko, a Russia historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said Putin should not be trusted.
Radchenko said Putin could be engaging in what was known during Soviet times as a “peace offensive,” an insincere tactical feint whose goal, he said, was “to present a reasonable face to the outside world: ‘Oh, yes, please. Of course we want peace; It’s just that the other party doesn’t want to talk.’”
Some Western officials believe Putin may also have his domestic audience in mind when he talks about a negotiated end to the war. Polls in Russia have shown that Russian citizens would welcome a deal that would end the conflict that has shaken their economy and caused tens of thousands of casualties.
Talk of peace could also win Putin favor among nations in the so-called global south: nations in South America, Asia and Africa, including India and South Africa, that are not aligned on the Ukraine conflict. Most of those countries have suffered from higher energy and food prices caused by the war.
Putin appeared to be exploiting Republican opposition to Biden’s funding request for Ukraine, echoing criticism made in recent weeks by some conservative members of Congress. “There are problems at the border, problems with migration, problems with the national debt: more than 33 trillion dollars. You have nothing better to do, so you should fight in Ukraine? Mr. Putin asked.
Alternatively, Radchenko said, Putin might be willing to make some unexpected concessions for a peace deal that leaves Russia with a foothold in eastern Ukraine, “and then use that as a basis for further aggression against Ukraine or as lever”. force preferential government in Ukraine.”
Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst at the RAND Corporation, said it was possible that Putin had been lying about the talks all along. But he said it was worth holding private talks with the Kremlin to determine Putin’s real demands.
“No one knows for sure, and no one can know for sure unless they try,” Charap said. He added that it was notable that Putin had not told Carlson that he had preconditions for the talks, such as the dismissal of Zelensky’s government.
Charap also noted that Russia and Ukraine were already negotiating on a number of issues, including prisoner-of-war exchanges and Ukrainian exports from their Black Sea ports.
Regardless of Putin’s intentions, Western analysts and officials say a major obstacle to potential talks is the Ukrainian public’s unwillingness to engage with an invader who has committed atrocities in their country.
“Zelensky is concerned about the domestic political consequences of pursuing a different tactic,” Charap said.
“Unless Ukraine demands a signal” of peace talks, “it is unlikely there will be a push from Washington,” he said.
