by As some world leaders hailed the restoration of ties between longtime enemies Iran and Saudi Arabia, fears were growing in Washington that the deal could help spell the end of US pre-eminence in the region and beyond.
China’s top diplomat Wang Yi called it a “victory for dialogue” and UN Secretary-General António Guterres welcomed the announcement and thanked China for brokering the deal. Meanwhile, the United States said through a National Security Council spokesman that China’s successful deal seemed to reflect the failed negotiations the White House conducted with both countries in 2021.
Aaron David Miller, who served as a Middle East policy adviser at the State Department for 25 years, said it was “really amazing” that the Saudis had struck a deal with the Chinese and Iranians.
“I think it shows that the influence and credibility of the United States in that region has diminished and that a new type of international regional alignment is taking place, which has empowered and given Russia and China new influence and status,” Miller said, who is now a Senior Fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Tehran is facing international criticism for supplying Russia with weapons to help its invasion of Ukraine, continuing efforts to enrich uranium that could allow it to develop a nuclear weapon, punishing its people for participating in anti-government protests and increasing tensions with Israel. These are all elements that the United States has raised on the world stage as an indictment against the Iranian government.
The deal was announced months after President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia, just weeks before the US midterm elections, to ask that it help keep gasoline prices low. Instead, Riyadh reached a separate agreement with Russia and other oil-producing states to cut output. The Biden administration saw it as a stab in the back and vowed that the Saudis would face “consequences.”
But it appears that the Saudis felt vulnerable, Miller said. “When you depend on a great power, you seek to align yourself with another to make deals with your adversaries,” he noted.
China’s ‘victory lap’
While some political analysts and former officials said the China-brokered deal seemed to signal a diminishing role for the United States on the world stage, others said Washington never had the opportunity to broker such a deal because it has no means to talk with Iran. The United States has no relations with Tehran, which leaves it on the sidelines of negotiations and talks.
China will undoubtedly take a “victory lap,” much to the chagrin of the United States, said Jonathan Lord, director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for the New American Security, even though the Saudis and Iranians have wanted to make a change. treat for some time.
“China is clearly going to tout its role on the international stage as an arbitrator and negotiator between nations,” he said, “but it was very clear that both the Iranians and the Saudis had intent and worked for years to come to this. place.”
The fact that China has reached this agreement is not necessarily a threat to the United States, said Thomas Countryman, who served as assistant secretary of state for international security and nonproliferation during the Obama administration. Since China has economic and diplomatic ties to Riyadh and Tehran, it would make sense that they could reach an agreement with the two nations.
“What worries me is that in the current climate in Washington, anything China does will be seen as a sign of perfidious intent and a demonstration that China is trying to dominate the world,” Countryman said. “The fact is that only someone like China could have mediated this rapprochement.”
While it will certainly enjoy international esteem, Beijing is also serving its national interests.
China is likely to take this opportunity to bolster its energy security through a strengthened relationship with the two oil-producing countries. Beijing relies on Iran and Saudi Arabia for oil, while the US and Europe have moved to find energy guarantees elsewhere, said Brian Katulis, vice president for policy at the Middle East Institute.
“It’s not just symbolism,” he said. “(China) cares a lot about having access to those energy resources.”
A peace to build defense
Iran and Saudi Arabia also have a lot to gain. The two longtime rivals in the Middle East have waged a proxy war in Yemen through Iran-linked Houthi rebels and the Saudi-aligned government that has also received US government support. Representatives of the two countries are at odds in other parts of the region, including in Lebanon and Iraq.
Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran may see less tension due to the deal, experts said. Many hoped that it would lessen the violence in Yemen and lead to fewer disputes between the two countries.
To be sure, the Saudis see the deal as a means of trying to reduce Iran’s ability to threaten them, or “at least limit some of the Iranian incentives that cause problems,” said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East envoy who has worked for both Republicans. and democratic administrations.
Ross said he didn’t think the deal would change anything in terms of the two countries’ fundamental relationship. A reestablishment of diplomatic ties between the two nations “reflects mutual interest, but is within a relationship of deep mistrust,” he said.
While there is likely to be less conflict, the two countries are also expected to use the de-escalation tensions to build their own defenses. Lord said Saudi Arabia had worked assiduously to build its military capacity to defend against the kinds of attacks Iran is capable of. In its ongoing dialogue with the US on normalizing relations with Israel and other issues, Riyadh has even raised expectations of developing its nuclear capabilities to mirror Iran’s.
But having a deal with Iran could perhaps give Riyadh cover to continue US efforts to normalize ties between the Saudis and Israel without incurring “a physical response” from Iran.
“I think maybe this reduces risk, potentially a bit, and gives them a bit more leeway to quietly explore greater opportunities with Israel (the US and other regional partners),” Lord said.
While perhaps helpful to the Saudis’ position, Israel is unlikely to be very happy. Iran has long been considered a particularly bitter enemy of Israel and has worked hard to normalize relations with the Gulf Arab kingdoms, notably through the 2020 Abraham Accords.
Naftali Bennett, former Prime Minister of Israel, criticized the Saudi-Iranian deal and blamed the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He said it was a “dangerous development” for Israel as the country seeks to build a bulwark against Iran.
“This is a fatal blow to the effort to build a regional coalition against Iran,” he said.
