by Only two Republicans, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, will take the CNN debate stage at Drake University in Des Moines on Wednesday night for the final televised showdown before the Iowa caucuses next week.
The man they are both pursuing, Donald J. Trump, is once again skipping any debate in which his front-runner status might be questioned in person, and instead participates in counterprogramming on a rival network, Fox News, with a city in prime time. own living room.
It’s exactly the kind of split screen Trump has sought throughout the cycle: his rivals arguing among themselves while he pleads his case without intrusive interruptions.
Here are five things to watch.
Can Haley break a streak of errors?
Haley has entered the final phase before the first 2024 vote begins in Iowa on Monday as perhaps Trump’s most serious rival, a status that, as she likes to joke along the way, has earned her plenty of new attention from “the boys.”
In reality, he is fighting two wars at once.
One is a race in Iowa against DeSantis, who his allies have said hopes to finish ahead in second place. The other is a race against Trump in New Hampshire, where some polls show him gaining significant ground ahead of the Jan. 23 primary. In some polls he is within striking distance, especially if support for Chris Christie, an anti-Trump candidate, were to flow her way.
But Haley made mistakes in the run-up to Iowa. She left out slavery when asked about the causes of the Civil War and, more recently, said in New Hampshire that voters in the second state with early voting would “correct” the voters. of the first.
“He was very condescending,” said Cody Hoefert, a former co-chair of the Iowa Republican Party who supports DeSantis. “Like Iowa almost doesn’t matter, and I think Iowa voters will hold her accountable for that.”
DeSantis’ team certainly believes it’s a line from Haley that will resonate. Her campaign has announced its “closing TV ad” ahead of the Iowa caucuses, and the ad begins with Ms. Haley’s corrective comment.
Can DeSantis find his footing?
The fact that DeSantis, who for months talked about the 2024 primary as a “race between two men,” is closing with an ad that begins by attacking Ms. Haley says a lot about how the primaries have gone for him so far.
His predictions of finishing first in Iowa have turned into a fierce fight with Ms. Haley. Wednesday’s debate is his best chance to take advantage of late momentum, a dynamic that has historically been crucial in caucuses.
The debate format (only two candidates will take the stage for the first time) should give her ample opportunity to make her case, which increasingly includes that Haley is in the pockets of her collaborators, some of whom flocked to her alone after having faded away.
DeSantis comes to the debate after two well-received town halls on CNN and Fox News, where at both events he showed signs of focusing on a closing message.
DeSantis has improved as the debate season has deepened, and unlike Haley, he has recent practice in one-on-one competition: the rare debate he held with Gov. Gavin Newsom of California in November, when he appeared particularly energized.
The question now: will he bring the same spark to this confrontation?
Haley has chance to respond to immigration attacks
As for that war on two fronts.
Haley is not only being attacked by DeSantis in Iowa but also by Trump in New Hampshire. The former president’s super PAC has begun running a tough ad that brings up a line she used in 2015 in which she said those in the United States illegally were not “criminals.”
“These are families that want a better life and are desperate to get here,” Haley said in 2015, commenting that the Trump operation has been featured in conservative media.
“Illegals are criminals, Nikki; that’s what ‘illegal’ means,” the narrator says in Trump’s new super PAC ad.
As governor of South Carolina, Ms. Haley had signed legislation announced as tough on immigrationbut the party has drifted even further to the right on this issue in the last decade.
Immigration and the border are the main issues in the Republican primaries. The narrator of Ms. Haley’s most recent announcement says: “His family deserves a safe border.” So, although the debate is in Iowa, her answers on immigration will also be echoed in New Hampshire, where it is being bombarded with negative publicity on the issue.
Both Haley and DeSantis will be pressed by CNN’s two moderators, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, veteran political hosts who are likely to ask tough questions.
Trump wants a night without errors
Trump has held three other town hall-style events with Fox News and Sean Hannity this election cycle. But even in the friendliest of environments, the former president can make unwanted headlines. In December, Hannity tried to get him to put to rest rumors of retaliation or dictatorship.
“Will you promise the United States tonight that you will never abuse power in retaliation against anyone?” Mr. Hannity said.
“Except on Day 1,” Trump responded. Mr. Hannity looked perplexed. “He’s going crazy,” Trump continued, referring to his host. “Except day 1.”
His Fox News town hall will be moderated by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, who oversaw Haley and DeSantis’ town halls on Monday and Tuesday.
Trump’s goal is to avoid doing anything that could threaten his position as the leader in the race.
Can Haley or DeSantis deliver a real blow to Trump?
Haley has found a line of attack against Trump that is familiar to those who closely followed his 2016 campaign, when Jeb Bush attempted to attack Trump as “the chaos candidate.”
The problem then was that voters seemed to want chaos. Even Haley has said that in 2016, Trump was the right candidate at the right time.
But now it’s Haley deploying the notion of chaos and hoping the context (after four years of a Trump White House followed by three years of a Biden White House) means it resonates differently.
“He was good at breaking things,” Haley said of Trump in her Fox News town hall on Monday. “Now we need someone to fix them.”
Chaos, of course, is partly code for the four criminal cases and 91 felony charges that Trump faces, and which most of his rivals, except Christie, have treated with caution.
DeSantis also has a new favorite line, which he will most likely deploy on the debate stage: Trump is running in his own and Ms. Haley is running on the issues of her donors, but only Mr. DeSantis is running on the issues of voters.
One of the questions heading into the final debate before the caucuses is whether DeSantis or Haley will take a more forceful approach to attacking the candidate they both trail badly, or will they settle for scoring points just against each other.
