by Not one less. Javier Milei ensures that the support of the 56% that consecrated him President in the runoff. In a normal country, the data should not attract so much attention. The libertarian, in short, barely borders the three months of management. But if some variables are reviewed, such as the almost 50 points of accumulated inflation, the number comes into debate.
The dangerous thing for Milei, according to his own story, is that the worst did not happen. At least that’s how they convey it in the Government. The data, revealed by Clarín in mid-January, remains intact in the libertarian schedule.
“March and April are going to be the worst months”, repeats a high official source to this newspaper. In these 61 days that start today, the rise in prices, much higher than salaries, would be combined with a strong recession.
There is talk of losses in purchasing power in the order of 40%. The cuts implemented by the new government are of that magnitude.. For this reason, the social protest will be observed with different eyes: “We did not worry about the first strikes, when we first took office, but now we will have to be attentive because we understand that people will suffer the worst part of the adjustment.”
The costs of the recession
Days ago, an official left his building, in a typical middle-class neighborhood in the West of the City, and a neighbor almost scolded him: “Are you going to do something? Because I have a business and I’m going bankrupt.”
The leader swears that he is doing more than “something”, but he was not clear enough about what the final costs of the recession would be to answer his neighbor.
For now, the Government believes that a symbolic still will come when inflation returns to a monthly digit. After 25.5% in December and 20.6% in January, the expectation is that February will be less than 15. This is suggested by the private consultants who submitted their data to the Casa Rosada, where everyone prefers to wait for the number anyway. Indec official.
“9% will continue to be horrible, but at least the light is beginning to appear at the end of the tunnel,” the ruling party consoles themselves. AND Add more data: “Us we see that 56% continue to support us. What happens is that since the other 44% are very noisy and intense, it seems that we lost support. Also expectations rise. In December, only 20% expected an improvement in the coming months; in January, it grew to 30% and in February to 40%.”
True so far, according to half a dozen surveys he saw Clarion in the last weeks. It is true that the Government maintains an important core of support, but the horrible nature of the studies analyzed by this newspaper show a polarization in equal parts. 50 and 50.
Furthermore, although in minimal portions, they began to appear “disenchanted” with Milei. People who voted for him and would not do it again today. A favor from the Government, it is also true that optimism is growing regarding the fight against inflation. In public, the President seeks to generate expectations. “Inflation will continue to fall sharply and the exit from the (exchange) stocks is close”he assured in his message before the Legislative Assembly this Friday.
They are careers that run in parallel and are closely related. Support for the President, recognized by officials, opponents and the red circle in general, depends on prices. If the latter goes down, the former grows. And vice versa.
More adjustment, caste and the role of Congress
Despite the voices that ask him for agreements and consensus, Milei and his intimate management core – his sister Karina, advisor Santiago Caputo and Chief of Staff Nicolás Posse – are convinced that the fight against “caste” will continue to bear fruit. This intention was expressed in the speech before Congress with the announcement of a “package of anti-caste laws.”
In practice, involves more adjustment. In the Government they say that they are coming delays in reduction at the plant of the State. And that clashes with the story. “It’s true that we still have people from La Cámpora and gnocchi everywhere,” he summarizes.
A senior official who landed in La Rosada in chainsaw mode recognizes that it is “60 days late” in its pruning plan: “I have already removed many, but due to bureaucratic issues and internal quilombos I have been delayed.” He promises that as soon as he can he will resume the advance.
The Government also plans to continue with cuts to the provinces. They mention some “20 trust funds” that they still need to audit and could cut. Forecast new fights with the governors.
Regarding this dispute, La Rosada notes a fact “that journalists are not seeing well.” They refer to the impact of the political fight on the economy.. “The governors said they were going to cut off gas and oil, and nothing happened in the markets,” they review and note it as “a sign of confidence in our program.”
something similarthey assure, it happened with the Omnibus Law. The economic team was preparing for a large jump in the exchange rate when the project fell through and it did not happen.
These results feed the duo that commands the economy and There is often mixed praise: Javier Milei and Luis Caputo. The President values the adjustment proposals that he brings to the minister. And “Toto” returns a high-end pampering; He says that the libertarian is doing what “Mauricio (for Macri) did not dare.”
