by He once wrote that China needs a “mighty Russia.” Now the man tasked by Beijing with bringing Kiev and Moscow to the negotiating table is causing surprise in Ukraine and among its Western allies, which are already skeptical of China’s claims to be a neutral peace broker.
Senior Chinese diplomat Li Hui to travel to Europe as China’s “special representative” in the conflict, in an attempt to help bring about a ceasefire and, ultimately, a resolution to the war, which threatens to descend into a bloody stalemate.
For Moscow, Li is “the best possible option” for someone to mediate in talks with Ukraine, according to Alexey Maslov, director of the Institute for Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University.
“Moscow won’t be worried because they really understand Russian politics,” according to Maslov, who says he has known Li personally for 10 years.
Li was China’s ambassador to Moscow until 2019 and has decades of diplomatic experience in the Soviet Union, before its collapse, and its remnants in the years since. He is a renowned Russophile and fluent in Russian, and is among the few foreigners awarded President Vladimir Putin’s prestigious Friendship Medal.
Today he is Beijing’s special representative for Eurasian Affairs.
Li enjoys reading great Russian writers like Leo Tolstoy and Fyodor Dostoevsky, Maslov said, adding: “He really understands the Russian soul, he understands Russian psychology, the Russian mentality.”
For his part, Li has often praised the Sino-Russian relationship. Four years after she wrote in a 2016 Russian Foreign Ministry newspaper article that China needs a “mighty Russia,” she composed a essay 2020 to the Communist Party-affiliated Chinese People’s Institute for Foreign Affairs, which said Beijing and Moscow would stand “back to back and shoulder to shoulder.”
“The two parties, as always, will show strong support for each other’s efforts to defend their own sovereignty, security, territorial integrity and other fundamental interests,” he wrote.
Russia is increasingly dependent on such support.
Sanctioned and doomed after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine last year hoping to quickly depose or oust the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Instead, his poorly equipped and led forces were pushed back by highly motivated, Western-backed Ukrainian troops, who recaptured much of the ground initially held by the Russians.
Li’s expected visit to several European countries may be an attempt to allay concerns about where Beijing’s diplomatic loyalties lie, given that China has previously announced its “unlimited” partnership with Russia, lent it rhetorical and financial support, and refused to condemn the february 2022 elections. invasion.
It is an unequal association.
The sanctions have pushed Russia even more dependent on China, selling it record amounts of oil that have allowed it to smooth out the economic storm imposed by its status as a global pariah. Beijing, in turn, has been able to exert increasing influence over Moscow, cementing a key ally in the geopolitical confrontation with the US.
In Li, China will send Ukraine “certainly someone well-versed in relevant issues and able to play a positive role in facilitating peace talks,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said at a briefing on Thursday. . “China will continue to work with the international community to play a constructive role in the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.”
In fact, Li’s deep knowledge of Russia “should not necessarily be seen as working in Russia’s favor, but rather as an attempt to appoint someone who can accurately interpret China’s position,” said Zeno Leoni, a professor of defense studies at King’s College London. He will “understand where mediation between Russia and Ukraine is possible and where not.”
The Ukrainian government itself has remained publicly positive about Li. Ukraine hopes that Li’s “deep knowledge of our region will help him communicate impartially and effectively with all parties,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko told NBC News in a statement.
To succeed in the peace negotiation, Li will have to bring both sides to the negotiating table. So far, the two sides are far from this point.
Ukraine has demanded the full restoration of its territorial integrity, including Russia’s annexed Crimea, payment of war damages, and punishment of war criminals.
While the Russians have not recently stated their goals in any negotiations, officials have said they would accept nothing less than Ukraine’s full demilitarization, non-NATO membership, and regions holding referendums to join Russia remain part of Russia. .
Sending Li as envoy “does not help close that gap” in trust between Ukraine and China, Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Bahrain-based risk management consultancy Le Beck International, said in an email.
“Beijing may feel that its ties with Russia will eventually be viewed in a more positive light, as long as Ukraine is ready to talk,” he added.
China is playing a “long game here, trying to position itself as a ‘peacemaker,’ to appeal to Europe, among others,” Horowitz said. “They understand that this is a long shot, but they are betting that at some point talks are inevitable and they are throwing their hat into the wheel.”
Li has also met with officials from other post-Soviet states that have more testy relations with Russia, a sign that Beijing wants to carve out its own place internationally and not be dictated to by Moscow.
Last year he visited the Georgian embassy in Beijing, a country that fought a war with Russia in 2008, and said their nations “have always respected and treated each other as equals,” according to the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China.
And in 2005 he met with a Ukrainian delegation in Beijing, website logs showand said that “China would like to enhance cooperation with Ukraine to jointly promote the continuous development of bilateral relations.” This was a time when Ukraine was run by a pro-Western government.
These outreach efforts do not seem to have borne fruit yet. Western officials have so far been skeptical of Beijing’s claims to be a neutral peace broker.
“So far, China has not shown itself to be impartial when it comes to supporting Russia,” a senior Biden administration official said this week after a call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Zelenskyy.
Skepticism from Ukraine and its Western allies was always likely, Michele Geraci, a professor at the University of Nottingham in the United Kingdom, said on Friday.
But for Beijing, Li was a pragmatic choice because the war “has created problems for China, which trades with both Ukraine and Russia,” he said, adding: “They want to get back to doing business with the rest of the world.”
Li, he said, was someone who knew Russia and could negotiate with Ukraine. “At the end of the day, the war is won by the strongest army, unfortunately not by the rule of law,” he added.
