by “Occupancy for January is low. One takes as reference real estate or properties that were rented for different public, both medium and premium, and today they are having difficulties. If you are going to lower prices? How much could they go down at this point in December?” The man speaking is Sergio Coronel, auctioneer, owner of a real estate company in Villa Gesell, a classic in the province of Buenos Aires that is just starting up. one of the worst seasons in more than 20 years, with a meager occupation of between 30% and 40% for January.
All those consulted for this note are tour operators or representatives of the main entities that nourish the sector. The view, even though the figures are different depending on the destination, is quite coincidental and is worth summarizing.
1) Summer 2024, for now, looks weak, with few reserves. Although some are optimistic and are sure that it will rebound, other tour operators speak with the tone of someone who – to put it brutally – kicks his face. Fingers crossed for a rebound.
Plus, 2) for the first time in years, some of the most popular destinations are seeing people traveling by car looking for those rental signs (sometimes informal), but not to stay for 15 days but only four or five.
That is, they are looking for short-term accommodation on the puchoinformation confirmed by both operators in the province of Buenos Aires and also in the province of Córdoba, where “people make reservations almost closer to going on vacation“said Darío Capitani, president of the Córdoba Tourism Agency, who did not give updated occupancy figures.
They all explain the same causes for what they observe. And, 3) 2023 was an exception to the usual habit of consulting and booking vacations starting in July and August. The multiple electoral events and the uncertainty over prices plus the depreciation of real wages distorted the entire tourism scenario.
This, 4) generated very low or very low percentages of reservations, beyond the fact that 2023 (it is especially highlighted) had been an “excellent” tourist year. The boom phenomenon collapsed on Christmas weekend, when occupancy fell by 20%.
The conclusion? That, 5) summer occupancy can rebound, yes, but it will depend on two issues: that those who are undecided about spending (in this context) decide or that, conversely, low demand drives a drop in prices from supply, something that could confirm ClarionIn some of the most expensive destinations on the Atlantic Coast, it has already started to happen.
Because, as stated Aldo Elías, second vice president of the Argentine Chamber of Tourism (CAT), alluding comparatively to trends in other areas, “tourism is an activity that cannot stock its production, which is why everything moves according to the Law of supply and demand”.
So? “With greater demand, prices heat up; In the absence of demand, they occur promotions and price reductions”, he defined.
Are the prices of dollarized vacations going down?
“Excepting the falls we had in 2016 and 2020, since the crisis of 2000 and 2001 we have not seen something like this. The issue with prices is how much they could really go down. Today, eating out costs 10,000 pesos per person in Villa Gesell. A family spends about 30,000. With accommodation prices starting at $45 per day for four passengers, how much can you lower the price? Five dollars? Would it make any difference?” Colonel asked himself incredulously.
In other destinations, the most expensive, where daily accommodation prices are perhaps double those of Gesell, the scenario is different, clarified Roberto Carlos Rodríguez, adding a spoonful of optimism. He is president of the Chamber of Tourism of the Province of Buenos Aires, as well as a hotelier in Mar de las Pampas.
“The ABC1 tourism places, such as Pinamar, Pinamar Norte, Mar de las Pampas or Cariló, for example, have a 30% decrease in reserves for January compared to last year, but prices are already starting to drop, at least 20%. We are confident, therefore, that occupancy, which is now around 70%, will reach 85% or 90% by January,” he estimated, adding that already this long New Year’s weekend seemed to see positive movement.
Of course, he said, “February can be complicated. The carnival falls as soon as the month begins and since that weekend occupancy always drops.”
In Mar del Plata, as Clarín reported almost ten days ago, occupancy was around 60%. a note from this Friday from the local newspaper The capital commented on the silence of the authorities regarding the occupation. It is logical to understand it as a sign of relative or poor health. And they reveal a 50% increase in accommodation prices since the inauguration of President Javier Milei. Coronel, referring to Gesell, stated that there was a quadrupling of accommodation prices in one year.
From the CAT, Elías shared the varied demand scenario that other attractions in the country have: “There are main destinations, like Salta, that are around the 30% occupancybut others, like Ushuaia (Land of Fire), they are already at 75%. Córdoba, on the other hand, is very stagnant, just like the city of Buenos Aires.”
Elías recalled that between the national elections and the “galloping inflation”, plus the “uncertainty regarding the new economic plan”, the creation of reserves it took a long time. On the other hand, he added, “people began to discover the attractions of nearby destinations and the facilities that allow them to book a destination at the last minute and get it.”
“Let’s see what happened at the last moment. We imagine and hope for an improvement in occupancy rates,” she confided.
Tourism, with deflated expectations.
Although the consultations were interrupted, the turning point was the long Christmas weekend, which “did not meet expectations”, stated several of those consulted. That word, “expectation,” embodies the seesaw mentality that weighs so heavily in Argentina these days.
The operators, on top of that, were excited, after a 2023 that Rodríguez described as “really spectacular.” They had managed to surpass, in many destinations in the country, the occupancy figures recorded in the pre-pandemic. In contrast, Coronel highlighted, the drop in reservations for January that Villa Gesell is experiencing, compared to two summers ago, reaches no less than 60%.
“We are talking with the owners because the values have been set after the election process and based on the increases and variations of the blue dollar, with everything dollarized. But in real estate we already saw that few consultations since July and August They were an indicator of this situation: a complicated summer,” he recalled.
Clarion He asked him if he feels worried. Coronel, patient, said no: “You want to work and make the season as good as possible. We already see little public compared to other years since Christmas. The strongest is January, second fortnight. I think the ‘few days’ phenomenon is going to happen. And in February we will resort to a combination: giving up benefits or comforts that were previously essential Yes or yes in exchange for being able to go on vacation for a few days.”
