by Ukraine is immersed in a desperate fight to stop the Russian attack.
Russian forces captured the former Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka before dawn on Saturday, Moscow’s first major battlefield victory since it took Bakhmut last May.
But along the entire 600-mile-long front, Ukraine is short of ammunition without renewed American military assistance, and is struggling to replenish its depleted forces after two years of brutal fighting.
Russia’s assault has been divided into five main lines of attack, covering towns and cities across much of the front in eastern and southern Ukraine. Here is the status of the Russian offensive in five critical battles:
1. Avdiivka
Russia captured a former Ukrainian stronghold.
The now destroyed city of Avdiivka It covers only about 12 square miles. But for the better part of a decade it created a bulge on the front line that undermined critical Russian logistics operations. It is located just a few kilometers from the city of Donetsk, which Russia has occupied since 2014.
In recent weeks, Russian forces breached a critical supply line and threatened to encircle Ukrainian soldiers. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, head of Ukrainian forces in the south, said Ukraine had no choice but to withdraw.
“In a situation where the enemy is advancing on the corpses of its own soldiers with a 10 to 1 advantage, under constant shelling, this is the only correct solution,” he said in a statement.
It is unclear to what extent the Russians could take this fight beyond Avdiivka, or how well the Ukrainians have built their next lines of defense. But the next major population centers, home to tens of thousands of civilians, are only about 35 miles to the west.
Approximately 50,000 Russian soldiers have been dedicated to the fight for Avdiivka in this direction, although numbers fluctuated. Tens of thousands of Russians have been killed or wounded, according to Western and Ukrainian officials, but Russia has been steadily replenishing its ranks, even using convicts to join the fighting.
Even if the lines stabilize after the Russians take the city, its fall allows the Russian military to move troops and equipment more efficiently behind the line while pressing in other directions.
Read more: Losing ground, Ukraine seeks new positions around Avdiivka, February 15
2. Marinka
A destroyed city is now a base for Russian attacks.
Last month, Russian forces had finally eliminated the last Ukrainian defenders of marinkaanother former frontline city.
Very little remains of Marinka after two years of Russian bombings and battles. But its capture has allowed the Russians to turn their attention to the south and to another vital Ukrainian stronghold, Vuhledar.
Last year, the Russians repeatedly attempted to attack Vuhledar from the south and suffered catastrophic losses, including a devastating defeat in one of the largest tank battles of the war.
But with Marinka under control, the Russians are attacking Vuhledar from the north. They are currently advancing through the village of Novomykhailivka, which is about 21 kilometers to the northeast.
It is unclear how many forces the Russians have built up in this direction, but Ukrainian officials has said Russia has kept about 40,000 in the nearby Mariupol area that will be deployed for attacks from the south.
Soldiers fighting in the Vuhledar area said the fall of Avdiivka, 55 miles to the northeast, would likely free up Russian forces to intensify attacks from the north.
Read more: A trophy in ruins: evidence grows that Russia controls Marinka, January 4
3. Robotino
Russia is trying to reverse Ukraine’s biggest gains last year.
When Ukraine’s failed summer counteroffensive culminated last year, its forces had managed to advance only about ten kilometers deep on the southern front, reaching just past a small village, robotino.
Russia now seems determined to recover what was lost.
The Russian army has more troops concentrated on this front than on the Avdiivka front, Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for Ukrainian soldiers fighting in the south, said this week.
“It seems that the Russians have set themselves the goal of achieving some success there by breaking in, just as they are trying to do in Avdiivka,” he said.
Read more: Russia regains some hard-won lands from Ukraine during counteroffensive, December 28
4. Kremlin
Russia is pushing from Kreminna to take back cities in the northeast it lost to Ukraine by the end of 2022.
Since the Russians were expelled from occupied territories in northeastern Ukraine more than a year ago (losing control of more than 500 settlements spread over 11,000 square kilometers), they have been fighting to try to take them back.
Last year, little territory changed hands, despite intense fighting in forest areas along the front. Now, Russia is beginning to advance again, albeit slowly in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance.
Russian forces are advancing in two directions from the city of Kreminna: towards the battered city of Kupiansk north and towards Lyman, 80 miles south. Russia has maintained a total force of around 110,000 troops in the area for months, despite losses, Illia Yevlash, an army spokesperson in the area, told reporters earlier this month.
Read more: Ukraine and Russia fight over a gateway city in the east, December 27
5. Bakhmut
Russia has regained momentum and a major Ukrainian city could come within artillery range.
Russia destroyed and then seized the city of Bakhmut in May, its last significant territorial gain on the battlefield before advancing toward Avdiivka this week. When the Russians took Bakhmut, their forces were exhausted and the Wagner mercenary group that led the fight was in open rebellion against the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukrainian hopes of taking advantage of the disorder to counterattack on the city’s flanks largely stalled. Now it is the Russians who have the initiative.
General Oleksandr Syrsky, the newly appointed commander of Ukrainian forces, recently said that the Russians are determined to break their defenses around Chasiv Yarwhich would give them control of the dominant heights in the area and expose the city of Kramatorsk to increased artillery fire. Some 62,000 Russian soldiers According to Ukrainian estimates, they are on the ground in the direction of Bakhmut.
“The situation is tense and requires constant monitoring of the overall situation and prompt decision-making on the ground,” General Syrsky said in a statement earlier this month.
Read more: Why Bakhmut? It’s a question as old as war, May 5, 2023
