by As former President Donald J. Trump campaigned in Iowa in the fall, he projected maximum confidence. During his speeches, he told his followers that his advisors had constantly warned him not to take the state for granted. Buoyed by his dominance in state polls, Trump insisted that he had no reason to worry.
“We are going to win the Iowa caucuses in a historic landslide,” Trump predicted in speeches in September and October.
But when he returned to Iowa last month, with the Jan. 15 state caucuses quickly approaching, Trump injected a note of concern. Although he maintained his trust, he warned his supporters about a growing threat: complacency.
“The poll numbers are scary, because we have a big lead,” Trump said on December 19 in Waterloo during his last trip to Iowa in 2023. “The key is that you have to go out and vote.”
“Don’t stay home and say, ‘I think we’ll take it easy, honey. It’s a wonderful, beautiful day. Let’s take it easy, watch TV and see the results,’” Trump later added. “No, because crazy things can happen.”
With just two weeks until the nation’s first nominating contest in Iowa, the Trump campaign is dedicated to meeting high expectations and avoiding a repeat of 2016, when Trump narrowly came in second in Iowa despite being ahead. ahead in the polls.
But while his Republican rivals are more focused on knocking on doors and influencing minds, Trump and his campaign have directed their efforts toward teaching his supporters how to caucus and recruiting a grassroots network to help ensure they show up.
“We already have the votes to win,” said one attendee. “All we have to do is drive them out.”
The campaign has focused much of its efforts on recruiting and training its most ardent supporters to become “caucus captains” who can help recruit other Trump supporters to be present at caucus sites and speak at Trump’s name.
The campaign also engages in the usual activities of political operations: handing out lawn signs, holding events where Trump addresses voters, and collecting phone numbers and emails to solicit donations and motivate potential supporters.
Trump’s advisers have pointed in particular to an extensive database the campaign has compiled during his last two presidential campaigns and has been using to identify potential caucusgoers who need a push to show up on Jan. 15.
The campaign has relied on the contact information of voters who attended Trump events and the records of campaign donors who live in Iowa. Many of those people voted for Trump in the general election, but did not participate in the 2016 caucus, aides said.
Staff members have sent a flurry of text messages, phone calls, emails and direct mail urging these supporters to join. A senior campaign adviser who was not authorized to speak publicly said access to that data could give the campaign a distinct advantage that reduces its reliance on door-knocking, a costly and laborious effort that is critical for rival campaigns.
Super PACs backing both Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, have undertaken large-scale door-knocking operations aimed at identifying potential supporters or persuading undecided voters.
The Iowa caucuses create a different turnout challenge than primary elections, in which voters simply need to go to a polling place and mark a ballot. Caucus participants must arrive on time and stay until the end. The meetings begin with speeches by attendees on behalf of their preferred candidates, in a final attempt to win over their friends and neighbors. Then everyone votes.
Trump attributed his second-place finish in Iowa in 2016, when he was about 6,000 votes short and one delegate short, to a weak ground game that did not effectively boost turnout. And advisers past and present have acknowledged that Trump had a fairly lean operation in Iowa at the time.
During that campaign, Trump visited the state much less frequently than his rivals. He avoided the retail politicking of meet-and-greets for rallies. And although he drew crowds, many of his audience had never met and his campaign lacked a robust operation to target, educate or motivate them.
During his current candidacy, Trump has still had a relatively small presence in the state compared to candidates like DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, the businessman, who have swept Iowa for months.
But starting in September, Trump began appearing in the state more frequently at so-called Caucus Engagement events, where his campaign made a more concerted effort to gather information from his supporters and recruit them as volunteers.
Ryan Rhodes, an Iowa political operative not affiliated with any campaign, said he thought the Trump campaign had taken “a little bit longer” to begin a robust field operation. But, he added, “they have recovered a lot of lost ground and have a very strong closing game.”
At Trump events in Iowa, volunteers (some of them already caucus captains) urge those lining up outside to join their ranks. As an incentive, the campaign has offered rewards: white and gold “captain of the Trump caucus” caps and the chance to meet Trump at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July.
So far, the campaign has 1,800 people who have agreed to be caucus captains, according to advisers, a surplus for the more than 1,600 places where people will gather on caucus night.
Campaign staff members have conducted hundreds of one-hour training sessions for caucus captains to learn how caucuses work and can explain the process to beginners. Caucus captains are given a suggested speech to deliver on caucus night.
The campaign has also presented captains with a “10 for Trump” program. Captains are given a list of 25 potential Trump supporters in their neighborhoods, and are asked to make sure that 10 first-time caucusgoers on the list show up to endorse Trump.
Last month, about two dozen captains and potential volunteers crowded into the campaign headquarters in Urbandale, Iowa, where Alex Meyer, a senior campaign adviser focused on Iowa and Missouri, emphasized the need for each of them to recruit to 10 voters.
Deborah Renae, 59, captain of the group that attended the event, said she sometimes spent 12 hours a day volunteering. She estimated that she had made nearly 200,000 calls to voters. “I feel like people are at the top of their game right now,” Renae said.
The campaign has also changed its events to help demystify the process. A new three-minute instructional video shown before Trump speaks features a blocky cartoon figure, Marlon, explaining what to do on caucus night. The campaign also hosts panels where caucus captains pressure others to get involved and argue how easy it is to form a caucus.
Behind these changes is a sense of urgency. Trump and his allies have made clear that he hopes to achieve a dominant result in the Iowa caucuses to potentially knock his rivals out of the race and clear the path to an early primary victory.
Trump is scheduled to return to Iowa on Friday and Saturday, where he will hold two events each day — a busy schedule for him, but paltry compared to some of his rivals. To fill the gaps, his campaign relies on a network of prominent Republican surrogates, nationally recognized allies who are popular with his base.
This week, Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota, a popular conservative, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a far-right star, will appear in Iowa on Trump’s behalf.
Last month, the campaign held events with Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Ben Carson, the neurosurgeon who served as Trump’s secretary of housing and urban development.
Gaetz acknowledged in an interview that his presence in the state was part of a more robust Trump campaign operation.
“I think President Trump’s first appearance in the Iowa caucuses had a certain ‘hold your beer’ energy,” he said. “It was a fun traveling carnival that inspired people and attracted them. But I am sure that today our campaign is more technically competent.”
