by Tyler Raygor knocked on the door of a gray one-story house in a neighborhood north of Ames, Iowa, and waited until a man in a hoodie and jeans appeared before launching into his speech.
The man, Mike Morton, said he was leaning toward voting for Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida or former President Donald J. Trump in next month’s caucuses. But had Mr. Morton considered Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina? No, Mr. Morton admitted, he had not thought much of her.
Raygor, state director of Americans for Prosperity Action, a super PAC that supports Haley, said a recent survey showing Ms. Haley with a big lead over President Biden in a general election showdown, and highlighted her time as US ambassador to the United Nations. She then handed Mr. Morton a Haley campaign pamphlet. The speech had an effect: Morton, 54, said he will “definitely take a closer look at Haley.”
“If you didn’t come to my house,” he added, “I’d probably overlook it a little more.”
With the January caucuses just under a month away, Haley’s campaign (along with Americans for Prosperity Action) aims to capitalize on the momentum her presidential bid has gained in recent months by reaching persuadable voters and firmly establishing her as the front-runner. alternative. to Mr. Trump for the Republican nomination.
And while his campaign’s efforts have yielded better poll results in other early voting states, including New Hampshire and South Carolina, he now sees an opportunity to secure a better-than-expected result in Iowa.
“It’s a ground game,” she he told The Des Moines Register last week. “We’re making sure all areas are covered.”
Ms. Haley got a last-minute boost last month with the backing of Americans for Prosperity Action, a deep-pocketed organization founded by billionaire industrial brothers Charles and David Koch. That endorsement opened access to donors and infused his grassroots campaign with funds for television ads and mailers. (Under federal law, Ms. Haley’s campaign and the organization cannot coordinate, but the super PAC can support it with advertising, messaging and voter engagement.)
In Iowa, where Haley had ceded ground to her better-funded rivals for most of the race, the AFP Action apparatus has come to life, deploying its network of volunteers and staffers like Raygor across the state to knock on doors . and change your mind.
The super PAC has recruited about 150 volunteers and part-time staff members to tour the state and aims to knock on 100,000 doors before the caucuses, said Drew Klein, senior adviser at AFP Action. It has spent more than $5.7 million on pro-Haley ads and canvassing efforts nationwide since endorsing her, and had more than $74 million on hand in July, according to its most recent financial filings with the Commission. Federal Electoral.
Both Haley and DeSantis are fighting for a group of undecided voters that could be shrinking as Trump maintains his dominant lead. A Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll this month found that Trump was the best choice for 51 percent of Republicans likely to participate in the caucus, up from 43 percent in October.
Mr. DeSantis’s support in the state increased slightly, to 19 percent, while Ms. Haley’s was unchanged, remaining at 16 percent. Other Emerson College survey in the state Last week he found that Trump had the support of half of Republican caucus voters, while Haley had 17 percent and DeSantis 15 percent.
But the reinforcements may be too late to overtake DeSantis in the state, where he and groups supporting him have spent much more time and money.
Florida’s governor has visited all 99 Iowa counties, and his well-funded ground operation, run almost entirely by Never Back Down, an affiliated super PAC, has been active in the state for months. He says he has already knocked on more than 801,000 doors.
Despite recent turmoil in that group – including the departure of its chief strategist, Jeff Roe, just over a week ago – Never Back Down has established a foothold in Iowa, with a new emphasis on its engagement operation. DeSantis has also received endorsements from key figures there, including Kim Reynolds, the popular Republican governor, and Bob Vander Plaats, the influential evangelical leader.
“Nikki Haley’s tactic of renting a last-minute campaign will not work,” DeSantis spokesman Andrew Romeo said in a statement. “Only the Washington establishment,” he added, “would try to argue that grassroots success can be bought.”
Jimmy Centers, a Republican strategist in Iowa who is not aligned in the race, said the endorsement of AFP Action and its on-the-ground operation could be the “missing link” for Haley. But he added that the group was facing a ticking clock.
“The open question here in Iowa is: Has Ambassador Haley peaked about 30 days early, when she’s already taking arrows and the AFP doesn’t have time to catch up?” Mr. Centers said.
The super PAC maintains its push comes at the right time because many people are just beginning to pay attention to the race for the Republican nomination. Mr. Raygor remembered criticism of the trump campaign who wondered if AFP Action would knock on doors at Christmas, given its late start.
“Maybe not on Christmas, but we’ll call on the 23rd. We’ll call on the 26th,” Mr. Raygor said. “My team has already suffered wind chills of negative -30 degrees. “Winter doesn’t scare us.”
But his recent stint in Ames illustrated the difficulty of a last-minute push. Of the six Republican voters who spoke with Raygor, one already supported Haley and two said they were persuadable. The other three were firmly supporters of Trump or Vivek Ramaswamy and could not be swayed.
“They will never get me out of Trump,” Barbara Novak said, dismissing Raygor’s best efforts as her bulldog barked at her from the window. “He did everything he said he was going to do.”
The reaction from Wanda Bauer, 72, suggested that the attacks launched against Haley by her rivals had shaped perceptions among at least some voters. Bauer said Haley was “big government” and “in favor of giving money to Ukraine.”
“Just read the things she supports,” he said, “and then you won’t be handing out her pamphlets, I guarantee you that.”
A recent tour of a Cedar Rapids neighborhood was even less fruitful. Cheryl Jontz, 60, and Kyla Higgins, 18, two part-time AFP Action staff members, split up to proselytize for Ms. Haley. But few people seemed interested in opening their doors in the frigid morning temperatures, and those who did mostly said they would back Trump.
Higgins reached out to one somewhat open-minded voter: Lisa Andersen, 52, who said she was leaning toward DeSantis or Trump but would be willing to consider Haley if the former president’s legal troubles became clear. She depends on him.
“If Trump wears an orange jumpsuit, you have to make a different decision,” Andersen said.
A spokeswoman for Haley’s campaign said AFP Action’s support had not changed the campaign’s strategic and gaming calculus in Iowa, where her team is trying to reach every corner of the state.
In recent days, the campaign has been preparing for its final push before the electoral assemblies. Ms. Haley wrapped up a five-day tour of the state last week and is adding more of her staff, including Pat Garrett, a former adviser to the Iowa governor who will head her Iowa press team.
David Oman, a Republican strategist and Haley supporter, said Haley was spending time where it mattered most: the six or eight metropolitan areas where most Iowa voters live.
“They are running an agile campaign,” Oman said, pointing to a small group of central staff and an assembly of volunteers working long hours. “They’re putting up a fight, that’s for sure.”
